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Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño

Cashin, Paul; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi - Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge - 2014

This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790556

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

Cashin, P.; Mohaddes, K.; Raissi, M. - Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge - 2012

This paper analyses spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010699832

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

Cashin, P.; Mohaddes, K.; Raissi, M.; Raissi, M. - Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge - 2012

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2.2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010699833

Has the income share of the middle and upper-middle been stable over time, or is its current homogeneity across the world the outcome of a process of convergence? The 'Palma Ratio'...

Palma, José Gabriel - Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge - 2014

stable stylised fact, or whether it is a new phenomenon, the outcome of a process of convergence towards the current '50 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010949350

A Pair-wise Approach to Testing for Output and Growth Convergence

Pesaran, M.H. - Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge - 2004

This paper proposes a pair-wise approach to testing for output convergence that considers all N(N-1)/2 possible pairs … of log per capita output gaps across N economies. A general probabilistic definition of output convergence is also … support output convergence and suggest that the findings of convergence clubs in the literature might be spurious. However …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005783799

Globalisation and Wage Differentials: A Spatial Analysis

Baddeley, M.; Fingleton, B. - Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge - 2008

In this paper, we assess the Fujita, Krugman and Venables (FKV) nonlinear model of wage differentials. Using a spatial econometric model incorporating a spatial autoregressive error process, we estimate a quadratic form using cross-sectional data for 98 countries from 1970 to 2000. The evidence...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005783829

Productivity and Efficiency of US Gas Transmission Companies: A European Regulatory Perspective

Jamasb, T.; Pollitt, M.G.; Triebs, T. - Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge - 2008

presented for changes in productivity, as well as for several convergence tests. The results indicate that taking productivity … and convergence as performance indicators, regulation has been rather successful, in particular during a period where …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005207828

On the Evolution of Regional Asymmetries

Giovannetti, E. - Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge - 1999

The paper models the evolution of regional asymmetries, and the associated intra-distribution mobility, as the outcome of adoption decisions taken by firms at different locations. The following equilibria are characterised: Persistent asymmetry where nobody adopts, Leapfrogging where low-quality...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005113736

General Model-based Filters for Extracting Cycles and Trends in Economic Time Series

Harvey, A.C.; Trimbur, T.M. - Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge - 2001

A new class of model-based filters for extracting trends and cycles in economic time series is presented. These low pass and band pass filters are derived in a mutually consistent manner as the joint solution to a signal extraction problem in an unobserved components model. The resulting trends...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005783731

Growth, Cycles and Convergence in US Regional Time Series

Carvalho, Vasco M.; Harvey, Andrew C. - Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge - 2002

income per capita in eight regions of the United States. The aim is to establish stylised facts about cycles and convergence …. A new model is developed in which convergence components are combined with a common trend and cycles. These convergence … convergence. This model is able to characterise the convergence patterns of all but the two richest US regions; these appear to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005113879