This paper studies a game theoretic model where agents choose between two updating rules to predict a future endogenous variable. Agents rationally choose between these predictors based on relative performance. Conditions for evolutionary stability and stability under learning are found for the...

Practising is a matter of increasing the reliability of ones skills rather than relying on a tool or a strike of genius to get it right. Once perfection has been achieved the individual will aim for higher quality since the effort is more likely to be worthwhile. Furthermore because the returns...

The use of correlation between forecasts and actual returns is commonplace in the literature, often used as a measurement of investors’ skill. A prominent application of this is the concept of the Information Coefficient (IC). Not only can IC be used as a tool to rate analysts and fund...

In the matter of financial literacy it is often supposed that more is automatically preferable to less. This paper considers to what extent this may be true generally, and specifically focuses on the case of investment forecasting skill (a significant component of an individual's financial...

This work evaluates whether or not the interest rate rules under different exchange rate regimes lead to a REE that is both locally determinate and stable under adaptive learning by private agents. I find that monetary interdependence among countries is crucial for the determinacy and learning...

We study the impact of technical analysis in a context of heterogeneous, utility-maximising agents. A framework is provided to capture observed diversity in forecast estimates as a result of interaction between prior beliefs and asymmetric information. Using investment decisions of...

The assumption of perfectly rational representative agents is commonly questioned. This paper explores the equilibrium properties of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents. We combine an adaptive learning process in a modified cobweb model within a Stackleberg framework. We assume that there is...

We consider the impact of anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations. To model this we assume that agents combine limited structural knowledge with a standard adaptive learning rule. We analyze these issues using two...

This paper considers the implications of the permanent/transitory decomposition of shocks for identification of structural models in the general case where the model might contain more than one permanent structural shock. It provides a simple and intuitive generalization of the in.uential work...

This paper considers the implications of the permanent/transitory decomposition of shocks for identification of structural models in the general case where the model might contain more than one permanent structural shock. It provides a simple and intuitive generalization of the in.uential work...