Given the sequential update nature of Bayes rule, Bayesian methods find natural application to prediction problems. Advances in computational methods allow to routinely use Bayesian methods in econometrics. Hence, there is a strong case for feasible predictions in a Bayesian framework. This...

This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to...

This paper considers the problem of forecasting under continuous and discrete structural breaks and proposes weighting observations to obtain optimal forecasts in the MSFE sense. We derive optimal weights for continuous and discrete break processes. Under continuous breaks, our approach recovers...

This paper studies a game theoretic model where agents choose between two updating rules to predict a future endogenous variable. Agents rationally choose between these predictors based on relative performance. Conditions for evolutionary stability and stability under learning are found for the...

The assumption of perfectly rational representative agents is commonly questioned. This paper explores the equilibrium properties of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents. We combine an adaptive learning process in a modified cobweb model within a Stackleberg framework. We assume that there is...

How are state-owned entreprises to be reformed? Privatisation seems to be the obvious solution. This essay argues that entreprises reform in the transition should focus on enhancing managerial.

The electricity reform in Colombia has exhibited gains in terms of reliability but its effects on firms efficiency and service quality have not been clear. Previous studies evaluating the performance of distribution companies after the reform have not found evidence of improvements, although...