The concept of rational performance-chasing equilibrium in recent literature is supported neither by theory nor by empirical evidence. A more accurate model of such market dynamics is based on investor confusion, which is partly driven by some active managers' performance manipulation. Unlike...

This paper examines the drivers behind revenues of merchant electricity interconnectors and the effect of arbitrage trading over interconnectors on the level and volatility of electricity prices in the connected markets. It sets out a simulation methodology that allows the stochastic and...

Rational herd behavior and informationally efficient security prices have long been considered to be mutually exclusive but for exceptional cases. In this paper we describe the conditions on the underlying information structure that are necessary and sufficient for informational herding and...

This paper presents a canonical, econometric model of contagion and investigates the conditions under which contagion can be distinguished from inter-dependence. In a two-country (market) set-up it is shown that for a range of fundamentals the solution is not unique, and for sufficiently large...

The GARCH-t model is widely used to predict volatilty. However, modeling the conditional variance as a linear combination of past squared observations may not be the best approach if the standardized observations are non-Gaussian. A simple modi.cation lets the conditional variance, or its...

The paper examines correlations between daily returns of month-ahead baseload electricity, fuel input and carbon emission allowance (EU-ETS) prices for Great Britain. The perspective of a CCGT plant operator is assumed, producing baseload electricity with natural gas and emission allowances and...

This paper estimates the effect of the merchant interconnector between Norway and the Netherlands on the level and residual volatility of hourly day-ahead electricity prices in the two connected markets. The price effects are estimated using single equation ARMA models and the volatility effects...

In financial markets with asymmetric information, traders may have an incentive to forgo profitable deals today in order to preserve their informational advantage for future deals. This sort of manipulative behaviour has been studied in markets with one informed trader (Kyle 1985, Chakraborty...

In dynamic conditional score models, the innovation term of the dynamic specification is the score of the conditional distribution. These models are investigated for non-negative variables, using distributions from the generalized beta and generalized gamma families. The log-normal distribution...

The long-term relationship between the prices of natural gas in the United Kingdom and oil-indexed natural gas in the North West European market is the result of seasonal arbitrage. This paper empirically investigates this long-term relationship and offers two main contributions: (i) To the best...