[...]Early in the morning of each business day, the major foreignexchange trading firms send their customers lists oftechnical trading signals for that day. Timely technical signalsare also supplied by major real-time information providers.These signals, which are based primarily on prior price...

[...]This study is the first formal investigation ofconsumer attitudes that compares the forecasting power ofthe University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentimentand the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index.We begin with a background analysis of structural differencesbetween the...

[...]This study is the first comprehensive examinationof the value of chain store data as macroeconomic indicators.2 We begin by considering important structuralchanges in the retail sector and their implications for interpretingthe chain store data. We then turn to formal statisticaltests of...

Interest in commodity prices as indicators of consumerprice inflation has ebbed and flowed withthe rise and fall in commodity prices themselves.True to form, as commodity prices have surged inthe last two years (Chart 1), interest in their predictivepower has returned. Inflation hawks point to...