This paper reports the results of 15 experimental asset markets designed to investigate the effect of optimistic …

. In this paper, we examine how the treatment of prior uncertainty about parameter values can affect forecasting accuracy …

This paper uses a simple New Keynesian monetary DSGE model as a prior for a vector autoregression and shows that the … resulting model is competitive with standard benchmarks in terms of forecasting and can be used for policy analysis. …

This paper compares the forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear models under the presence of structural breaks … probabilities of recessions are used to analyze the Brazilian business cycle. The ability of each model in forecasting out …-of-sample the growth rates of GDP is examined. The forecasting ability of the two models is also compared with linear specifications …

tool for guiding policy decisions. In this paper, we demonstrate that the poor forecast performance is largely eliminated …

This paper estimates a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model in which agents use a Bayesian rule to learn about the …