Housing supply plays an important role in the volatility of macroeconomic cycles and the speed with which house prices respond to changes in demand, yet it is understudied in the current literature. In this paper we present and estimate a new model of the supply of residential construction that...

This paper presents new, computationally efficient algorithms for solution and estimation of nonlinear dynamic rational expectations models. The innovations in the algorithms are as follows: (1) The entire solution path is obtained simultaneously by taking a small number of Newton steps, using...

The evidence for excess smoothness of aggregate consumption and excess volatility of stock prices is reexamined, using a method that nests parsimonious trend- and difference-stationary specifications of the forcing processes. The confidence interval for the present value of an innovation to...

A number of recent papers have developed dynamic macroeconomic models that incorporate rational expectations and optimizing foundations. While the theoretical motivation behind these models is sound, the dynamic implications of many of the specifications that assume rational expectations and...

This paper examines the issue of causality in cross-sectional empirical models of economic growth. Using an approach to determining causal structures based on tests for conditional independence in sets of variables, we uncover alternative causal structures that are consistent with the...

The Pure Expectations Hypothesis has long served as the preeminent benchmark model of the relationship between the yields on bonds of different maturities. When coupled with rational expectations, however, most empirical renderings of the model fail miserably. This paper explores the possibility...