predictive power for GDP data revisions. A positive (negative) error in Okun's Law in real time implies that GDP will be later …Using U.S. real-time data, we show that changes in the unemployment rate unexplained by Okun's Law have significant … about the true state of real economic activity also helps to improve GDP forecasts in the near term. Our findings add a new …

A number of explanations for the observed decline in GDP volatility since the mid-1980s have been offered. Valerie … sales is an explanation for the decline in GDP volatility. Their models show that a decrease in sales persistence leads to a … persistence may have declined and then tests the Ramey-Vine hypothesis with monthly chain-weighted sales data from 2- and 3-digit …

As has been widely observed, the volatility of GDP has declined since the mid-1980s compared with prior years. One … interest sensitivity. This result poses challenges for the hypothesis that improved monetary policy explains the decline in GDP …

government spending generate an increase in current GDP. Nominal rigidities are an essential feature for the emergence of such a …

Why is GDP so much more volatile in poor countries than in rich ones? To answer this question, we propose a theory of …-level data for a broad sample of countries, we provide extensive empirical evidence confirming the cross-country and cross …

Most of the reduction in GDP volatility since the 1983 is accounted for by a decline in comovement of output among …

production techniques are responsible for the decline in the volatility of U.S. GDP growth. Our innovations are to look at the … data at a finer level of disaggregation than previous studies, to exploit cross-sectional heterogeneity to obtain clearer … identification of this hypothesis, and to provide a complete accounting of the change in GDP volatility. Changes in inventory …