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An empirical examination of the price-dividend relation with dividend management

Ackert, Lucy F.; Hunter, William C. - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - 2000

Some recent empirical evidence suggests that stock prices are not properly modelled as the present discounted value of expected dividends. In this paper we estimate a present value model of stock price that is capable of explaining the observed long-term trends in stock prices. The model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005520049

Inter-industry contagion and the competitive effects of financial distress announcements: evidence from commercial banks and life insurance companies

Elijah Brewer, III; William E. Jackson, III - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - 2002

Contagion usually refers to the spillover of the effects of shocks from one or more firms to other firms. Most studies of contagion limit their analysis to how shock affect firms in the same industry, or "intra-industry" contagion. The purpose of this paper is to explore and document the likely...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005419883

The pitfalls in inferring risk from financial market data

Bliss, Robert R. - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - 2000

This paper examines two qualitative rules of thumb, frequently invoked in discussions of bank regulatory policy. The first, that equity holders prefer more risk to less, derives from a result in option pricing theory, that an option's value increases monotonically with the riskiness of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005419915

Testing the stability of implied probability density functions

Bliss, Robert R.; Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - 1999

Implied probability density functions (PDFs) estimated from cross-sections of observed options prices are gaining increasing attention amongst academics and practitioners. However, to date little attention has been paid to the robustness of these estimates or to the confidence users can place in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005419930

When is inter-transaction time informative?

Furfine, Craig - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - 2003

We investigate the information content of inter-transaction time and find that it varies both across stocks and over … time. On average, inter-transaction time is found to be informative whenever stocks are sufficiently traded. The magnitude … of the information content is found to be larger for less liquid, but still fairly actively traded stocks. In general …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005419964

Using stock returns to identify government spending shocks

Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Peters, Ryan - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - 2009

This paper explores a new approach to identifying government spending shocks which avoids many of the shortcomings of existing approaches. The new approach is to identify government spending shocks with statistical innovations to the accumulated excess returns of large US military contractors....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005078417

Pricing IPOs of mutual thrift conversions: the joint effect of regulation and market discipline

Elijah Brewer, III; Evanoff, Douglas D.; So, Jacky - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - 2001

A large number of mutual savings and loan associations (MSLs) converted their charters into stock ownership between the mid-1980s to mid-1990s. Because these conversions tended to generate windfall profits for insiders and investors, new conversion guidelines and regulations were proposed by the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005726265

Market discipline in the governance of U.S. Bank Holding Companies: monitoring vs. influencing

Bliss, Robert R.; Flannery, Mark J. - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - 2000

Market discipline is an article of faith among financial economists, and the use of market discipline as a regulatory tool is gaining credibility. Effective market discipline involves two distinct components: security holders' ability to accurately assess the condition of a firm ("monitoring")...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005726323

From the horse’s mouth: how do investor expectations of risk and return vary with economic conditions?

Amromin, Gene; Sharpe, Steven - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - 2012

. Moreover, analysis of the micro data indicates that expectations of both risk and returns on stocks are strongly influenced by … expected returns on stocks rise during recessions to compensate household investors for increased exposure or sensitivity to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010593675

Bank capital and stock returns during the financial crisis

Demirguc-Kunt, Asli; Detragiache, Enrica - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010723812