at several maturities into components reflecting counterparty credit risk and funding-market liquidity. To account for … longer maturities, credit risk explains much of the time variation in Libor, reflecting in part fluctuations in the degree to … which default risk is priced in the interbank market. Our results are consistent with banks both under- and over …

stabilization and agents face uncertainty about the nature of these deviations. When observing a deviation, agents conduct Bayesian … prompt return to the active regime, macroeconomic uncertainty is low, welfare is high. However, if a deviation persists …, agents’ beliefs start drifting, uncertainty accelerates, and welfare declines. If the duration of the deviations is announced …

term structures of risk-free rates. In our framework, distinct core, food, and energy price series combine into a measure … inflation-indexed bond market. Finally, we find a pronounced declining pattern in the inflation risk premium that illustrates … the changing nature of inflation risk in nominal Treasuries. …