Working paper, emanating from a WEP research project concerned with population and employment, on the evaluation of population policies and employment policies in developing countries - describes the methodological approach of the Bachue series of demographic and economic models, and covers...

ILO pub-WEP pub. Working paper on employment policy implications of urban area labour market structures in developing countries - studies unemployment, underemployment, labour market segmentation and wage determination; examines the impact of poverty on labour force participation; emphasizes the...

ILO pub-WEP pub. Working paper based on a conference paper on models for analysis of interrelationships between labour mobility of migrant workers (migration) and income distribution in developing countries - includes a literature survey of empirical research, and covers labour market absorption...

ILO pub. Article on economic implications of child labour in developing countries - develops a typology of child employment consisting of homemaker duties, unpaid work, forced labour, wages labour, informal sector, schooling, leisure and reproductive activities, reviews different kinds of...

The relatively infrequent nature of major credit distress events makes a historical approach particularly useful. Using a combination of historical narrative and econometric techniques, we identify major periods of credit distress from 1875 to 2007, examine the extent to which credit distress...

An examination of the dynamics of commitment, showing that because the decision regarding rules versus discretion occurs in real time, opting for discretion is often the better choice, since it leaves open the possibility of adopting rules later on.

Do steep recoveries follow deep recessions? Does it matter if a credit crunch or banking panic accompanies the recession? Moreover, does it matter if the recession is associated with a housing bust? We look at the American historical experience in an attempt to answer these questions. The...

This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve predicts future growth. The spread between corporate bonds and commercial paper reliably predicts future growth over the period 1875-1997. This predictability varies over time, however, particularly across...

Considering time inconsistency as a problem of irreversible investment brings some neglected points to the fore. Making a policy choice in real time and under current conditions emphasizes the importance of the timing of commitment, the regret over past decisions, and the option value of not...