Uses a bilateral trade gravity model to evaluate the effects of freedom of association and collective bargaining (FACB) rights on exports. Finds robust relationships between stronger FACB rights and higher total manufacturing exports.

Provides a method of constructing an indicator of violations of freedom of association and collective bargaining rights, as defined in ILO Conventions. Compares the method with other indicators related to trade union rights constructed by the OECD and the Freedom House organization. Argues that...

Uses a gravity trade model to estimate the effects of child labour and education on exports from 1993 to 1999, evaluating total exports, total manufacturing exports and manufacturing exports broken down by labour and skill intensity of production using four different classifications of...

The relatively infrequent nature of major credit distress events makes a historical approach particularly useful. Using a combination of historical narrative and econometric techniques, we identify major periods of credit distress from 1875 to 2007, examine the extent to which credit distress...

An examination of the dynamics of commitment, showing that because the decision regarding rules versus discretion occurs in real time, opting for discretion is often the better choice, since it leaves open the possibility of adopting rules later on.

Do steep recoveries follow deep recessions? Does it matter if a credit crunch or banking panic accompanies the recession? Moreover, does it matter if the recession is associated with a housing bust? We look at the American historical experience in an attempt to answer these questions. The...

This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve predicts future growth. The spread between corporate bonds and commercial paper reliably predicts future growth over the period 1875-1997. This predictability varies over time, however, particularly across...

Considering time inconsistency as a problem of irreversible investment brings some neglected points to the fore. Making a policy choice in real time and under current conditions emphasizes the importance of the timing of commitment, the regret over past decisions, and the option value of not...