ILO pub-WEP pub. Working paper emanating from a WEP research project, on the implications of technological change over the simulation period in the bachue models for population and employment in developing countries - examines technological change in the input output matrix, etc., and considers...

Examines the use of social accounting matrices in development planning.

Working paper, emanating from a WEP research project concerned with population and employment, on the evaluation of population policies and employment policies in developing countries - describes the methodological approach of the Bachue series of demographic and economic models, and covers...

ILO pub-WEP pub. Working paper comprising a comparison of demographic aspects in public expenditure with regard to developing countries - aims at testing the extent to which population growth diverts resources from productive to less productive public investment. Statistical tables.

The relatively infrequent nature of major credit distress events makes a historical approach particularly useful. Using a combination of historical narrative and econometric techniques, we identify major periods of credit distress from 1875 to 2007, examine the extent to which credit distress...

Do steep recoveries follow deep recessions? Does it matter if a credit crunch or banking panic accompanies the recession? Moreover, does it matter if the recession is associated with a housing bust? We look at the American historical experience in an attempt to answer these questions. The...

This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve predicts future growth. The spread between corporate bonds and commercial paper reliably predicts future growth over the period 1875-1997. This predictability varies over time, however, particularly across...

Considering time inconsistency as a problem of irreversible investment brings some neglected points to the fore. Making a policy choice in real time and under current conditions emphasizes the importance of the timing of commitment, the regret over past decisions, and the option value of not...

An examination of the dynamics of commitment, showing that because the decision regarding rules versus discretion occurs in real time, opting for discretion is often the better choice, since it leaves open the possibility of adopting rules later on.