Caught between the end of the National Banking Era and the beginning of the Federal Reserve System, the crisis of 1914 provides an example of a banking panic avoided. We investigate how this outcome was achieved by examining data on the issues of Aldrich-Vreeland emergency currency and clearing...

A demonstration of time series techniques used to forecast quarterly money supply levels. The results indicate that a bivariate model, including an interest rate and M1 predicts M1 better than the univariate model using M1 only, and as well as a 5-variable model which adds prices, output, and...

A discussion of the circumstances under which interest rate rules are consistent with nominal determinacy in macroeconomic models.

An empirical and theoretical analysis of how changes in the monetary policy function affect the covariance structure of macroeconomic data.

An examination of how the diminishing role of reserve requirements has made the monetary base a less useful measure of monetary policy than in previous years.

An investigation of the nature of the dynamic process implied by staggered-reserve accounting, using a simple reduced-form model of the money-supply process.

An examination of a procedure for comparing non-nested models to the problem of choosing an intermediate target for monetary policy. Six models of economic activity, based on six different monetary aggregates, are compared.