This paper investigates the relationship between energy-price shocks and three core measures of inflation in a vector autoregression model that incorporates measures of monetary policy and inflation expectations. The sample set includes data at monthly frequencies from 1980 through 2000. The...

Attitudes about foreign-exchange-market intervention in the United States evolved in tandem with views about monetary policy as policy makers grappled with the perennial problem of having more economic objectives than independent instruments with which to achieve them. This paper—the...

The United States all but abandoned its foreign-exchange-market intervention operations in late 1995, when they proved corrosive to the credibility of the Federal Reserve?s commitment to price stability. We view this decision as the culmination of the evolution of U.S. monetary policy over the...

An argument that variations of extant general-equilibrium monetary models can generate real-time economic forecasts comparable in accuracy to those contained in the Federal Reserve Board's "Greenbook" briefing documents.

This paper considers the implications of a decreasing demand for cash transactions under several monetary policy regimes. A policy of nominal-interest-rate targeting implies that a secular decline in the volume of cash transactions unambiguously leads to accelerating inflation. A policy of...

This paper develops a model of the term structures of nominal and real interest rates driven by state variables representing the short-term real interest rate, expected inflation, inflation’s central tendency, and four volatility factors that follow GARCH processes. We derive analytical...

Understanding why the prices of commodities, like copper, increase or decrease is one of the many pieces of the puzzle that we as policymakers try to fit together to help us figure out how the economy and inflation will perform in the future. Inflation is what the Federal Reserve can control -...

In a speech at Case Western Reserve University, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President and CEO Sandra Pianalto discussed how the recovery is unfolding, focusing on the stubborn nature of high unemployment and her concern about our uncomfortably low rate of inflation. She also explained why...

In a panel discussion at the University of Akron in Akron, Ohio, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President and CEO Sandra Pianalto gave a brief overview of her current outlook for the economic recovery and for inflation.

In a speech to the Pittsburgh Chapter of the Association for Corporate Growth, President Pianalto presented her current outlook for the economic recovery and inflation, and described some risks to that outlook. She also discussed the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the benefits of an...