Forecasting future inflation and nowcasting contemporaneous inflation are difficult. We propose a new and parsimonious …

This paper presents a 16-variable Bayesian VAR forecasting model of the U.S. economy for use in a monetary policy … setting. The variables that comprise the model are selected not only for their effectiveness in forecasting the primary …

In this paper we investigate the forecasting performance of the median CPI in a variety of Bayesian VARs (BVARs) that … are often used for monetary policy. Until now, the use of trimmed-mean price statistics in forecasting inflation has often … inflation forecasting improvements are perhaps not surprising given the current literature on core inflation statistics, we also …

Recession, and it has been blamed as a factor in the weak subsequent recovery as well. This paper uses micro-level data to …