Showing 1 - 10 of 30
A development of a simple model in which interest rate claims are priced in the Heath-Jarrow-Morton paradigm and so incorporate full information on the term structure. The volatility structure for forward rates is humped and includes as a special case the exponentially dampened volatility...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005526596
A vast literature on the effects of sterilized intervention by the monetary authorities in the foreign exchange markets concludes that intervention systematically moves the spot exchange rate only if it is publicly announced, coordinated across countries, and consistent with the underlying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005526609
An argument that informational asymmetries explain why the original shareholders of some firms emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings with stock in the reorganized company, while others receive warrants. By proposing a reorganization plan in which they receive warrants, the original...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005428266
forecasting tool. We use a nonparametric test of the densities that is based on the inverse probability functions and is modified … that the densities based on the American option markets for foreign exchange do quite well for the forecasting period over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005428276
This paper considers the pricing of options when there are jumps in the pricing kernel and correlated jumps in asset returns and volatilities. Our model nests Duan’s GARCH option models, where conditional returns are constrained to being normal, as well as mixed jump processes as used in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005428354
In this paper, the authors calculate risk-neutral densities (RND) by estimating the daily diffusion process of the underlying futures contract for foreign exchange, based on the price of the American puts and calls reported on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for the end of the day. Their quick...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005728988
In this paper we examine how the forecasting performance of Bayesian VARs is affected by a number of specification … length and of both; compare alternative approaches to multi-step forecasting (direct, iterated, and pseudo-iterated); discuss …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009024092
This paper examines disclosures by sell-side analysts when their institution has a lending relationship with the firms being covered. Lending-affiliated analysts’ earnings forecasts are found to be more accurate relative to forecasts by other analysts but this differential accuracy manifests...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009221524
This paper surveys recent developments in the evaluation of point forecasts. Taking West’s (2006) survey as a starting point, we briefly cover the state of the literature as of the time of West’s writing. We then focus on recent developments, including advancements in the evaluation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009321127
subset of variables common to the larger sets of variables included in the competing forecasting models. We consider an out … comparing the predictive content of credit spreads to growth in real stock prices for forecasting U.S. real GDP growth. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009321128