on particular paths of policy instruments. Even though conditional forecasting is common, there has been little work on …, unemployment, and inflation from a VAR, based on conditions on the short-term interest rate. Throughout the analysis, we focus on …

with short-term forecasts from other sources (nowcasts from either surveys or other models). Tilting systematically …

Forecasting future inflation and nowcasting contemporaneous inflation are difficult. We propose a new and parsimonious … and PCE inflation also significantly outperform those from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, with similar nowcasting … model for nowcasting headline and core inflation in the U.S. price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the …

This paper presents a 16-variable Bayesian VAR forecasting model of the U.S. economy for use in a monetary policy … setting. The variables that comprise the model are selected not only for their effectiveness in forecasting the primary …

are often used for monetary policy. Until now, the use of trimmed-mean price statistics in forecasting inflation has often … inflation forecasting improvements are perhaps not surprising given the current literature on core inflation statistics, we also …In this paper we investigate the forecasting performance of the median CPI in a variety of Bayesian VARs (BVARs) that …