In this paper we examine how the forecasting performance of Bayesian VARs is affected by a number of specification … length and of both; compare alternative approaches to multi-step forecasting (direct, iterated, and pseudo-iterated); discuss …

subset of variables common to the larger sets of variables included in the competing forecasting models. We consider an out … comparing the predictive content of credit spreads to growth in real stock prices for forecasting U.S. real GDP growth. …

This paper presents a 16-variable Bayesian VAR forecasting model of the U.S. economy for use in a monetary policy … setting. The variables that comprise the model are selected not only for their effectiveness in forecasting the primary …

discussed why and how the Bank develops its economic forecasts and why the role of judgment becomes paramount for forecasting …

In this paper we investigate the forecasting performance of the median CPI in a variety of Bayesian VARs (BVARs) that … are often used for monetary policy. Until now, the use of trimmed-mean price statistics in forecasting inflation has often … inflation forecasting improvements are perhaps not surprising given the current literature on core inflation statistics, we also …

on particular paths of policy instruments. Even though conditional forecasting is common, there has been little work on …

Forecasting future inflation and nowcasting contemporaneous inflation are difficult. We propose a new and parsimonious …