This paper measures flow rates into and out of unemployment for Turkey and uses them to estimate the unemployment rate … trend, that is, the unemployment rate to which the economy converges in the long run. In doing so, the paper explores the … role of labor force participation in determining the unemployment rate trend. We find an inverse V-shaped pattern for …

unemployment and underemployment, employment, workweeks, wages, vacancies, hiring, layoffs, quits, and surveys of consumers’ and … payroll employment and the unemployment rate. Other infl uential indicators include the insured unemployment rate, consumers … perspective of the model, the unemployment rate declined a bit faster over the past two years than was consistent with the other …

unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches—the more reduced form … unemployment flows is useful in forecasting the unemployment rate. We find that any approach that leverages unemployment inflow and … usefulness is amplified at specific points in the business cycle when unemployment rate is away from the longer-run natural rate …