Similar Search Results

Unemployment Flows, Participation, and the Natural Rate for Turkey

Sengul, Gonul; Tasci, Murat - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 2014

This paper measures flow rates into and out of unemployment for Turkey and uses them to estimate the unemployment rate … Turkey’s unemployment rate trend over time, currently between 8.5 percent and 9 percent, with an increasing labor market … to forecast unemployment in Turkey with relative ease and accuracy. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114915

Drifting Inflation Targets and Monetary Stagflation

Knotek, Edward S. Knotek, II; Khan, Shujaat - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 2014

This paper revisits the phenomenon of stagflation. Using a standard New Keynesian dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium model, we show that stagflation from monetary policy alone is a very common occurrence when the economy is subject to both deviations from the policy rule and a drifting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010960454

Interbank Lending and Distress: Observables, Unobservables, and Network Structure

Craig, Ben; Koetter, Michael; Kruger, Ulrich - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 2014

We provide empirical evidence on the relevance of systemic risk through the interbank lending channel. We adapt a spatial probit model that allows for correlated error terms in the cross-sectional variation that depend on the measured network connections of the banks. The latter are in our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114924

Frequency Dependence in a Real-Time Monetary Policy Rule

Ashley, Richard; Tsang, Kwok Ping; Verbrugge, Randal John - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 2014

We estimate a monetary policy rule for the US allowing for possible frequency dependence—i.e., allowing the central bank to respond differently to more persistent innovations than to more transitory innovations, in both the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. Our estimation method uses...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011075146

Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions

Clark, Todd; McCracken, Michael - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 2014

Many forecasts are conditional in nature. For example, a number of central banks routinely report forecasts conditional on particular paths of policy instruments. Even though conditional forecasting is common, there has been little work on methods for evaluating conditional forecasts. This paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114900

Estimating (Markov-Switching) VAR Models without Gibbs Sampling: A Sequential Monte Carlo Approach

Bognanni, Mark; Herbst, Edward - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 2014

Vector autoregressions with Markov-switching parameters (MS-VARs) offer dramatically better data fit than their constant-parameter predecessors. However, computational complications, as well as negative results about the importance of switching in parameters other than shock variances, have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010961575

The Role of Interbank Relationships and Liquidity Needs

Craig, Ben; Fecht, Falko; Tumer-Alkan, Gunseli - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 2014

In this paper, we focus on the interconnectedness of banks and the price they pay for liquidity. We assess how the concentration of credit relationships and the position of a bank in the network topology of the system influence the bank’s ability to meet its liquidity demand. We use quarterly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114912