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Investment spikes and uncertainty in the petroleum refining industry
Dunne, Timothy; Mu, Xiaoyi - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 2008
This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on the investment decisions of petroleum refineries in the US. We … construct uncertainty measures from commodity futures market and use data on actual capacity changes to measure investment … model the investment process using hazard models. An increase in uncertainty decreases the probability a refinery adjusts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005728983
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Believe only what you see: credit rating agencies, structured finance, and bonds
Elamin, Mahmoud - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 2012
This paper identifies rating verifiability as a key difference that explains why credit rating agencies (CRAs) failed to mitigate information asymmetries in the structured finance market but succeeded in the bond market. Two infinitely repeated models are analyzed. In the first, the rating is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010592567
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Believe only what you see: credit rating agencies, structured finance, and bonds
Elamin, Mahmoud - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 2012
This paper identifies rating verifiability as a key difference that explains why credit rating agencies (CRAs) failed to mitigate information asymmetries in the structured finance market but succeeded in the bond market. Two infinitely repeated models are analyzed. In the first, the rating is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011133753
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Inflation uncertainty : a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, November 4 - 6, 1992
In: Journal of money, credit and banking : JMCB 25 (1993) 3, pp. 469-708
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001149968
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U.S. foreign-exchange-market intervention during the Volcker-Greenspan era
Bordo, Michael D.; Humpage, Owen F.; Schwartz, Anna J. - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 2010
uncertainty about the strength of the System's commitment to price stability. That the U.S. Treasury maintained primary … responsibility for foreign-exchange intervention only compounded this uncertainty. In addition, many FOMC participants feared that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008465777
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A medium scale forecasting model for monetary policy
Beauchemin, Kenneth; Zaman, Saeed - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 2011
This paper presents a 16-variable Bayesian VAR forecasting model of the U.S. economy for use in a monetary policy setting. The variables that comprise the model are selected not only for their effectiveness in forecasting the primary variables of interest, but also for their relevance to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009358592
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Monetary policy regimes: a synthesis of the monetary control and rational expectations literatures
Hoehn, James G. - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 1984
The monetary control literature has attempted to explore the effects of alternative policies without succeeding in incorporating rational expectations or in integrating analysis of the money supply sector into a complete macroeconomic framework. the rational expectations approach, while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005526587
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The effects of disinflationary policies on monetary velocity
Gavin, William T.; Dewald, William G. - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 1989
A study of the effect of disinflation policies on monetary velocity, which shows a systematic relation between unexpected changes in the money-income relationship and changes in the trends of inflation rates, and which concludes that the failure to commit to a stable price policy tends to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005526589
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Learning and the central bank
Carlstrom, Charles T.; Fuerst, Timothy S. - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 2001
It is well known that sunspot equilibria may arise under an interest-rate operating procedure in which the central bank varies the nominal rate with movements in future inflation (a forward-looking Taylor rule). This paper demonstrates that these sunspot equilibria may be learnable in the sense...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005526594
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Interest rate rules are infeasible and fail to complete macroeconomic models
Hoehn, James G. - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 1987
A discussion of the circumstances under which interest rate rules are consistent with nominal determinacy in macroeconomic models.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005526598