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Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
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Lessons for Forecasting Unemployment in the U.S.: Use Flow Rates, Mind the Trend
Meyer, Brent Hedlund
;
Tasci, Murat
-
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
-
2015
This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that leverage unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches—the more reduced form approach of Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) and the more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011167294
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2
Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects
Fallick, Bruce
;
Wascher, William
;
Aaronson, Stephanie
; …
-
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
-
2014
Since 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from about 66 percent to about 63 percent. The sources of this decline have been widely debated among academics and policymakers, with some arguing that the participation rate is depressed due to weak labor demand while others argue that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114904
Saved in:
3
Unemployment Flows, Participation, and the Natural Rate for Turkey
Sengul, Gonul
;
Tasci, Murat
-
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
-
2014
This paper measures flow rates into and out of unemployment for Turkey and uses them to estimate the unemployment rate trend, that is, the unemployment rate to which the economy converges in the long run. In doing so, the paper explores the role of labor force participation in determining the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114915
Saved in:
4
Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions
Fallick, Bruce
;
Nekarda, Christopher J.
;
Chung, Hess
; …
-
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
-
2015
unemployment and underemployment, employment, workweeks, wages,
vacancies
,
hiring
, layoffs, quits, and surveys of consumers’ and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114921
Saved in:
5
How Cyclical Is Bank Capital?
Haubrich, Joseph
-
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
-
2015
The alleged pro-cyclicality of bank capital (high in good times, low in bad) has received some blame for the recent financial crisis. Others blame the countercyclicality of capital regulations: too low in high times and too high in bad. To address this problem, Basel III has introduced...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011206261
Saved in:
6
Consumer Debt Dynamics: Follow the Increasers
Knotek, Edward S. Knotek, II
;
Braxton, John Carter
-
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
-
2014
Consumer debt played a central role in creating the U.S. housing bubble, the ensuing housing downturn, and the Great Recession, and it has been blamed as a factor in the weak subsequent recovery as well. This paper uses micro-level data to decompose consumer debt dynamics by separating the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114903
Saved in:
7
Search frictions and the labor wedge
Pescatori, Andrea
;
Tasci, Murat
-
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
-
2011
This paper assesses whether labor market frictions, in the form of searching and matching, can help explain movements in the labor wedge--the gap between the marginal rate of substitution (MRS) and the marginal productivity of labor in a perfectly competitive business cycle model. Results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009024093
Saved in:
8
Policy in adaptive financial markets—the use of systemic risk early warning tools
Gramlich, Dieter
;
Oet, Mikhail V.
;
Ong, Stephen J.
-
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
-
2013
How can a systemic risk early warning system (EWS) facilitate the financial stability work of policymakers? In the context of evolving financial market dynamics and limitations of microprudential policy, this study examines new directions for financial macroprudential policy. A flexible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011115679
Saved in:
9
Inflation and output in New Keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg
Carlstrom, Charles T
;
Fuerst, Timothy S
;
Paustian, Matthias
-
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
-
2012
Recent monetary policy experience suggests a simple diagnostic for models of monetary non-neutrality. Suppose the central bank pegs the nominal interest rate below steady state for a reasonably short period of time. Familiar intuition suggests that this should be modestly inflationary, and a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011165810
Saved in:
10
The ins and outs of unemployment in the long run: unemployment flows and the natural rate
Tasci, Murat
-
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
-
2012
This paper proposes an empirical method for estimating a long-run trend for the unemployment rate that is grounded in the modern theory of unemployment. I write down an unobserved-components model and identify the cyclical and trend components of the underlying unemployment flows, which in turn...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011133743
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