Forecasting future inflation and nowcasting contemporaneous inflation are difficult. We propose a new and parsimonious … model for nowcasting headline and core inflation in the U.S. price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the … and PCE inflation also significantly outperform those from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, with similar nowcasting …

1980’s. In particular, inflation persistence has declined sharply. The paper demonstrates that this decline is consistent …) the central bank more aggressively responds to inflation. …

The authors examine the inflation take-off of the early 1970s in terms of the expectations trap hypothesis, according … to which fear of violating the public’s inflation expectations pushed the Fed into producing high inflation. This … interpretation is compared with the Phillips curve hypothesis, according to which the Fed produced high inflation as the unfortunate …