This paper measures flow rates into and out of unemployment for Turkey and uses them to estimate the unemployment rate … trend, that is, the unemployment rate to which the economy converges in the long run. In doing so, the paper explores the … role of labor force participation in determining the unemployment rate trend. We find an inverse V-shaped pattern for …

expansions of government programs, including the unemployment insurance system, and have spurred calls for wage insurance that …

unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches—the more reduced form … unemployment flows is useful in forecasting the unemployment rate. We find that any approach that leverages unemployment inflow and … usefulness is amplified at specific points in the business cycle when unemployment rate is away from the longer-run natural rate …