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Forecasting future inflation and nowcasting contemporaneous inflation are difficult. We propose a new and parsimonious model for nowcasting headline and core inflation in the U.S. price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the consumer price index (CPI). The model relies on...
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switching in parameters other than shock variances, have caused MS-VARs to see only sparse usage. For our first contribution, we …
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