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The effects of news about future productivity on international relative prices: an empirical investigation

Nam, Deokwoo; Wang, Jian - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - 2010

In this paper, we find that expected (news) and unexpected (contemporaneous) components of productivity changes have … factor productivity (TFP) into news and contemporaneous productivity changes. The US real exchange rate appreciates following … international transmission of productivity shocks and the modeling of exchange rate volatility. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008739773

Product innovation and the business cycle

Jovanovic, Boyan; Lach, Saul - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1995

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721084

The covariability of productivity shocks across industries

Lebow, David E. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1990

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005526400

Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle

Lopez-Salido, J. David; Stein, Jeremy C.; Zakrajsek, Egon - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2015

Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2013, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t-2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t through t+2. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. That is, when our sentiment...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011273704

Vertical specialization and international business cycle synchronization

Arkolakis, Costas; Ramanarayanan, Ananth - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - 2008

countries. We show analytically that fluctuations in measured productivity in our model are not linked across countries through …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005367956

Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes

Ahmed, Shaghil - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1999

This paper studies the sources of economic fluctuations in three key Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico) using a dynamic panel model, distinguishing between external and domestic shocks. The primary motivation is to examine the implications for the choice of monetary and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368163

Savings rates and output variability in industrial countries

Schinasi, Garry J.; Gagnon, Joseph E. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1989

The economics literature offers competing hypotheses about the relationship between savings rates and output variability. This paper examines data for eight industrial countries to determine if there is a discernible pattern between savings rates and cyclical volatility of output. We find a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368180

Sudden stops, financial crises and leverage: a Fisherian deflation of Tobin's Q*

Mendoza, Enrique G. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2008

This paper shows that the quantitative predictions of a DSGE model with an endogenous collateral constraint are consistent with key features of the emerging markets' Sudden Stops. Business cycle dynamics produce periods of expansion during which the ratio of debt to asset values raises enough to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368211

Returns to scale in U.S. production: estimates and implications

Basu, Susanto; Fernald, John G. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1996

A typical (roughly) two-digit industry in the United States appears to have constant or slightly decreasing returns to scale. Three puzzles emerge, however. First, estimates tend to rise at higher levels of aggregation. Second, estimates of decreasing returns in many industries contradict...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368257

Emerging market business cycles revisited: learning about the trend

Boz, Emine; Daude, Christian; Durdu, Ceyhun Bora - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2008

The data reveal that emerging markets do not differ from developed countries with regards to the variance of permanent TFP shocks relative to transitory. They do differ, however, in the degree of uncertainty agents face when formulating expectations. Based on these observations, we build an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368262

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