Ramsey models of fiscal and monetary policy with perfectly-competitive product markets and a fixed supply of capital predict highly volatile inflation with no serial correlation. In this paper, we show that an otherwise-standard Ramsey model that incorporates capital accumulation and habit...

In a stylized DSGE model with an energy sector, the optimal policy response to an adverse energy supply shock implies a rise in core inflation, a larger rise in headline inflation, and a decline in wage inflation. The optimal policy is well-approximated by policies that stabilize the output gap,...

This paper explores issues that arise in implementing monetary policy under conditions of sustained price stability. We discuss several issues that concern the selection of a central bank's inflation objective under such conditions: price measurement; the behavior of other key variables,...

We describe the inflation targeting framework (ITF) and compare it against hypothetical best-practice based on optimization. The core requirements of the ITF are an explicit long-run inflation goal and a commitment to transparency in policymaking. Advocates and practitioners of the ITF have made...

A growing body of evidence suggests that ongoing relationships between consumers and firms may be important for understanding price dynamics. We investigate whether the existence of such customer relationships has important consequences for the conduct of both long-run and short-run policy. Our...

The volatility of U.S. real GDP growth since 1984 has been markedly lower than that over the previous quarter-century. In this paper, we utilize frequency-domain and VAR methods to distinguish among several competing explanations for this phenomenon: improvements in monetary policy, better...

The Barro-Gordon inflation bias has provided the most influential argument for fixed exchange rate regimes. However, with low inflation rates now widespread, credibility concerns seem no longer relevant. Why give up independent monetary policy to contain an inflation bias that is already under...

Remarks before the Society of Business Economists, London, England, March 4, 2008. ; "At present, we simply do not have the ability to adequately account for the impact globalization has on the gearing of our domestic economy. Absent that capacity, we cannot, in my opinion, confidently assume...

"The earnest men and women who make up the FOMC have no intention of squandering the bedrock capital of a central bank: the confidence the public places in our hands to keep inflation at bay while we work to bolster economic growth and restore the financial system." ; Remarks before the Progress...

Remarks before the Global Interdependence Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, January 17, 2008. ; "...the FOMC does not intend to just squat and wait should economic data and sound risk management signal that monetary accommodation is required."