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The macroeconomic effects of debt- and equity-based capital inflows

Davis, Jonathan Scott - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - 2014

This paper will consider whether debt- and equity-based capital inflows have different macroeconomic effects. Using external instruments in a structural VAR, we first identify the component of capital inflows that is driven not by domestic economic and financial conditions but by conditions in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011160716

Institutional quality, the cyclicality of monetary policy and macroeconomic volatility

Duncan, Roberto - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - 2014

In contrast to industrialized countries, emerging market economies are characterized by proor acyclical monetary policies and high output volatility. This paper argues that those facts can be related to a long-run feature of the economy - namely, its institutional quality (IQL). The paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010772608

The Federal Reserve in a globalized world economy

Taylor, John B. - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - 2014

This paper starts from the theoretical observation that simple rules-based monetary policy will result in good economic performance in a globalized world economy and the historical observation that this occurred during the Great Moderation period of the 1980s and 1990s. It tries to answer a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084963

The Federal Reserve engages the world (1970-2000): an insider's narrative of the transition to managed floating and financial turbulence

Truman, Edwin Malcolm - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - 2014

This paper traces the evolution of the Federal Reserve and its engagement with the global economy over the last three decades of the 20th century: 1970 to 2000. The paper examines the Federal Reserve’s role in international economic and financial policy and analysis covering four areas: the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114882

Hot money and quantitative easing: the spillover effect of U.S. monetary policy on Chinese housing, equity and loan markets

Zhou, Hao; Ho, Steven Wei; Zhang, Ji - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - 2014

We study a factor-augmented vector autoregression model to estimate the effects of changes in U.S. monetary policy, as well as changes in U.S. policy uncertainty, on the Chinese economy. We find that since the Great Recession, a decline in the U.S. policy rate would result in a significant...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114885

Forecasting turning points: is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?

Emery, Kenneth M.; Koenig, Evan F. - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - 1992

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005394381

Introductory remarks to the Price Measurement for Monetary Policy Conference

Fisher, Richard W. - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - 2007

Remarks given to a conference organized by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Cleveland, Dallas, Texas, May 24, 2007 ; "One of our main criticisms here at the Dallas Fed of much of the core inflation literature is that it lacks theoretical coherence. It reminds me of the time-honored saying...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010726020

Confessions of a data dependent

Fisher, Richard W. - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - 2006

Remarks before the New York Association for Business Economics, New York, November 2, 2006 ; "Globalization brings new influences into the Fed's navigation calculations to determine the best flight path for the U.S. economy. To determine that course...we must develop a better understanding of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010726054

A real-time historical database for the OECD

Fernandez, Adriana Z.; Koenig, Evan F.; … - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - 2011

Ongoing economic globalization makes real-time international data increasingly relevant, though little work has been done on collecting and analyzing real-time data for economies other than the U.S. In this paper, we introduce and examine a new international real-time dataset assembled from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009366928

The Taylor rule and forecast intervals for exchange rates

Wang, Jian; Wu, Jason J. - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - 2008

-of-sample interval forecasting. Most studies in the literature focus on point forecasts. In this paper, we apply Robust Semi …-parametric (RS) interval forecasting to a group of Taylor rule models. Forecast intervals for twelve OECD exchange rates are … fundamentals: economic variables contain information useful in forecasting the distributions of exchange rates. The benchmark …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004993850