This paper documents a strong negative correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty and real GDP growth since the Great Recession. Prior to that event the correlation was weak, even when conditioning on recessions. At the same time, many central banks reduced their policy rate to its zero lower...

Remarks before the Society of American Business Editors and Writers 2011 Annual Conference, Dallas, Texas, April 8, 2011 ; In the fall of 2006, I was asked to draw upon some 30 years of experience in Germany and speak at the American Academy in Berlin, addressing the question: “Is Germany’s...

"Monetary policy acts with a lag. I liken it to a good single malt whiskey or perhaps truly great tequila: It takes time before you feel its full effect. The Fed has to be very careful now to add just the right amount of stimulus to the punchbowl without mixing in the potential to juice up...

Remarks before the Dallas Assembly, Dallas, Texas, September 27, 2011 ; "Monetary policy cannot solve the problem of substandard economic performance unless it is complemented by fiscal policy and regulatory reform that encourages the private sector to put to work the affordable and abundant...

Remarks before the U.S.-China Business Council, the Coalition of Service Industries and the American Council of Life Insurers, Washington, D.C., May 14, 2007 ; "The service sector may not be as noisy or get as much analytical or political attention as the manufacturing sector, but it has a...

Remarks before the Society of Business Economists, London, England, March 4, 2008. ; "At present, we simply do not have the ability to adequately account for the impact globalization has on the gearing of our domestic economy. Absent that capacity, we cannot, in my opinion, confidently assume...

Remarks before the 125th Annual Convention of the Texas Bankers Association, San Antonio, Texas, May 15, 2009 ; "The most recent reports indicate that job losses may be slowing; trucking companies--a group often looked to as a leading indicator--report a slight pickup in sales; purchasing...

Remarks before the Park Cities Rotary Club, Dallas, Texas, February 9, 2007 ; "At this early juncture in 2007, I think it entirely reasonable to expect the economy to maintain an average pace of 3 percent growth for the year. And, if we at the Fed do our job well, we should be able to...

"The earnest men and women who make up the FOMC have no intention of squandering the bedrock capital of a central bank: the confidence the public places in our hands to keep inflation at bay while we work to bolster economic growth and restore the financial system." ; Remarks before the Progress...

Remarks before the Dallas Friday Group, Dallas, Texas, October 21, 2011 ; "Absent some shock, I envision a slow but steady improvement in the economy into 2012. That is, if our fiscal authorities will remove their stranglehold on clarifying fiscal initiatives. If not, then, in my view, I expect...