Autoregressions of quarterly or annual aggregate time series provide evidence of trend-reverting output growth and of short-term dynamic adjustment that appears to be governed by complex eigenvalues. This finding is at odds with the predictions of reasonably parameterized, convex one-sector...

This paper takes up Bayesian inference in a general trend stationary model for macroeconomic time series with independent Student-t disturbances. The model is linear in the data, but nonlinear in parameters. An informative but nonconjugate family of prior distributions for the parameters is...

There are two approaches to maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of the parameter of fractionally-integrated noise: approximate frequency-domain ML (Fox and Taqqwu, 1986) and exact time-domain ML (Solwell, 1990a). If the mean of the process is known, then a clear finite-sample mean-squared error...

A general class of Markov switching regime time series models is presented that allows one to estimate the nontrivial interdependencies between different types of cycles which make the economy grow at an unsteady rate. The paper further explores results obtained in Ghysels (1991b) suggesting...

This paper is a comment on P.C.B. Phillips, “To criticise the critics: an objective Bayesian analysis of stochastic trends” [Phillips (1990)]. Departing from the likelihood of an univariate autoregressive model different routes that lead to a posterior odds analysis of the unit root...

Central to ongoing debates over the desirability of monetary unions is a supposed trade-off, outlined by Mundell [1961]: a monetary union reduces transactions costs but renders stabilization policy less effective. If shocks across countries are sufficiently correlated, then, according to this...

We study a dynamic version of Meltzer and Richard's median-voter analysis of the size of government. Taxes are proportional to total income, and they are used for government consumption, which is exogenous, and for lump-sum transfers, whose size is chosen by electoral vote. Votes take place...