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Moench, Emanuel; Ng, Serena; Potter, Simon - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2009

This paper uses multi-level factor models to characterize within- and between-block variations as well as idiosyncratic noise in large dynamic panels. Block-level shocks are distinguished from genuinely common shocks, and the estimated block-level factors are easy to interpret. The framework...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008636156

Real time underlying inflation gauges for monetary policymakers

Amstad, Marlene; Potter, Simon - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2009

Central banks analyze a wide range of data to obtain better measures of underlying inflationary pressures. Factor models have widely been used to formalize this procedure. Using a dynamic factor model this paper develops a measure of underlying inflation (UIG) at time horizons of relevance for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008636171

Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

Chauvet, Marcelle; Potter, Simon - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2001

business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420520

Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings

Klaauw, Wilbert van der; Bruin, Wändi Bruine de; Topa, … - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2008

This paper reports preliminary findings from a Federal Reserve Bank of New York research program aimed at improving survey measures of inflation expectations. We find that seemingly small differences in how inflation is referred to in a survey can lead respondents to consider significantly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005726635

Markov switching in disaggregate unemployment rates

Chauvet, Marcelle; Juhn, Chinhui; Potter, Simon - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2001

.S. unemployment rates. We extract the common dynamics among unemployment rates disaggregated for seven age groups. The framework … allows analysis of the contribution of demographic factors to secular changes in unemployment rates. In addition, it allows … favor of the common factor and of the switching between high and low unemployment rate regimes. We also find that …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005526273

Is there still an added-worker effect?

Juhn, Chinhui; Potter, Simon - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2007

Using matched March Current Population Surveys, we examine labor market transitions of husbands and wives. We find that the “added-worker effect”—the greater propensity of nonparticipating wives to enter the labor force when their husbands exit employment—is still important among a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420557