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Uncertainty is a ubiquitous concern emphasized by policymakers. We study how uncertainty affects decision-making by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). We distinguish between the notion of Fed-managed uncertainty vis-a-vis uncertainty that emanates from within the economy and which the Fed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436980
The paper examines if real stock returns in four countries are consistent with consumption-based models of international asset pricing. The paper finds that ex-ante real stock returns exhibit statistically significant fluctuations over time and that these fluctuations cannot be explained by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476685
The paper illustrates how one may assess our comprehensive uncertainty about the various relations in the entire chain from human activity to climate change. Using a modified version of the RICE model of the global economy and climate, we perform Monte Carlo simulations, where full sets of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464221
This paper presents a dynamic model of a public pension fund's choice of portfolio risk. Optimal portfolio allocations … public pension fund management, we find evidence that funds chose greater overall asset - liability portfolio risk following …, pension plans take more risk when they have greater representation by plan participants on their Boards of Trustees …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462201
A key criticism of the existing empirical literature on the risk-return relation relates to the relatively small amount …, measures of conditional mean and conditional volatility--and ultimately the risk-return relation itself--will be misspecified … that three new factors, a "volatility," "risk premium," and "real" factor, contain important information about one …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467202
Investor confidence and risk tolerance are important concepts that investors are constantly trying to gauge. Yet these … changes in demand and fundamentals perceived by all investors, and a second that reflects changes in the relative risk … tolerance of institutional investors over and above that of domestics. The latter component, changes in relative risk tolerance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468537
power for expected returns across a range of equity characteristic portfolios and non-equity asset classes, with risk price … estimates that are of the same sign and similar in magnitude. Positive exposure to capital share risk earns a positive risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457922
international capital flows that highlights the interplay between diminishing returns, production risk and sovereign risk. We show … that in the presence of reasonable diminishing returns and production risk, the probability that international crises occur …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470955
asset demands and prices. International asset pricing models with mean-variance investors predict that an asset's risk … empirical evidence shows that a country's risk premium depends on its covariance with the world market portfolio and that there … is some evidence that exchange rate risk affects expected returns. However, the theoretical asset pricing literature …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469720
risk-sharing. General equilibrium models and consumption data tend to find that the costs are small, typically less than … higher variability of stocks, and/or (b) the higher degree of risk aversion required to reconcile an international equity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473454