Uncertainty appears to jump up after major shocks like the Cuban Missile crisis, the assassination of JFK, the OPEC I … uncertainty shocks. I build a model with a time varying second moment, which is numerically solved and estimated using firm level … data. The parameterized model is then used to simulate a macro uncertainty shock, which produces a rapid drop and rebound …

This paper shows that, with (partial) irreversibility, higher uncertainty reduces the impact effect of demand shocks on … investment. Uncertainty increases real option values making firms more cautious when investing or disinvesting. This is confirmed … both numerically for a model with a rich mix of adjustment costs, time-varying uncertainty, and aggregation over investment …

more highly correlated; moreover, at these times, money supply positively affects financial market liquidity, albeit with a … lag of two weeks. During normal times, increases in mutual fund flows enhance stock market liquidity and trading volume …, but during financial crises, U.S. government bond funds see higher inflows, resulting in increased bond market liquidity …

Uncertainty varies strongly over time, rising by 50% to 100% in recessions and by up to 200% after major economic and … political shocks. This paper shows that higher uncertainty reduces the responsiveness of R&D to changes in business conditions … - a "caution-effect" - making it more persistent over time. Thus, uncertainty will play a critical role in shaping the …

We provide theoretical and empirical evidence that policy uncertainty can significantly affect firm level investment … and entry decisions in the context of international trade. When market entry costs are sunk, policy uncertainty can create … a real option value of waiting to enter foreign markets until conditions improve or uncertainty is resolved. Using a …

We assess the impact of U.S. trade policy uncertainty (TPU) toward China in a tractable general equilibrium framework …