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Inference, arbitrage, and asset price volatility

Adrian, Tobias (contributor) - 2004 - [Elektronische Ressource], Rev. February 2008

, informed investors, and noise traders. Arbitrageurs face a trade-off between arbitrage and inference: they would like to buy … assets in response to temporary price declines (the arbitrage effect) but sell when prices decline permanently (the inference … effect). In equilibrium, the presence of arbitrageurs increases volatility when the inference effect dominates the arbitrage …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002101431

Inference, arbitrage, and asset price volatility

Adrian, Tobias - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2004

This paper models the impact of arbitrageurs on stock prices when arbitrageurs are uncertain about the drift of the dividend process of a risky asset. Under perfect information, the presence of risk-neutral arbitrageurs unambiguously reduces the volatility of asset returns. When arbitrageurs are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420543

Learning about beta : a new look at CAPM tests

Adrian, Tobias (contributor); … - 2004 - [Elektronische Ressource]

"When risk-factor loadings are time-varying and unobservable, investors are forced to form beliefs about the levels of their loadings. The learning process involved in forming these beliefs has normative implications for asset-pricing tests. This paper develops an equilibrium model of learning...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002521758

Nonlinearity and flight to safety in the risk-return trade-off for stocks and bonds

Adrian, Tobias; Crump, Richard K.; Vogt, Erik - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2015

We document a highly significant, strongly nonlinear dependence of stock and bond returns on past equity-market volatility as measured by the VIX. We propose a new estimator for the shape of the nonlinear forecasting relationship that exploits additional variation in the cross section of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011254934