The acceleration of productivity since 1995 has prompted a debate over whether the economy's underlying growth rate will remain high. In this paper, we propose a methodology for estimating trend growth that draws on growth theory to identify variables other than productivity - namely consumption...

We investigate how college students form and update their beliefs about future earnings using a unique “information” experiment. We provide college students true information about the population distribution of earnings and observe how this information causes respondents to update their...

Remarks at the Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.

Remarks before the Puerto Rico Chamber of Commerce Annual Convention, Fajardo, Puerto Rico.

Remarks at the Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.

Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York, New York City.>