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"This paper develops a new approach to change-point modeling that allows for an unknown number of change points in the observed sample. Our model assumes that regime durations have a Poisson distribution. The model approximately nests the two most common approaches: the time-varying parameter...
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The U.S. business cycle expansion that started in March 1991 is the longest on record. This paper uses statistical techniques to examine whether this expansion is a onetime unique event or whether its length is a result of a change in the stability of the U.S. economy. Bayesian methods are used...
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The acceleration of productivity since 1995 has prompted a debate over whether the economy's underlying growth rate … identify variables other than productivity - namely consumption and labor compensation - to help estimate trend productivity … direction. In addition, we find that productivity data alone provide insufficient evidence of regime changes; corroborating …
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