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uncertainty. We construct a notion of a model-uncertainty-induced utility function and show that model uncertainty increases … investors’ effective risk aversion. Using this utility function, we extend the “no good deals” methodology of Cochrane and Saá …-Requejo (2000) to compute lower and upper good-deal bounds in the presence of model uncertainty. We illustrate the methodology using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011027208
consumption. We investigate the robustness of these results to model uncertainty using Bayesian model averaging. We find that … there is model uncertainty with regard to the number of cointegrating vectors, the form of deterministic components, lag … length, and whether the cointegrating residuals affect consumption and income directly. Whether this uncertainty has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420623
This paper examines the performance of forecast-based nonlinear Taylor rules in a class of simple microfunded models. The paper shows that even if the policy rule leads to a locally determinate (and stable) inflation target, there exist other learnable "global" equilibria such as cycles and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005726618
uncertainty, and they illustrate the contract design in an application with Bayesian learning. The disagreement creates gains from … intertemporal source of “disagreement risk” that alters optimal risk sharing. An endogenous regime shift between economies with … variable pay even after beliefs have converged. Under risk-neutrality, “selling the firm” to the agent does not implement the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005726663
settings where prices of risk vary with observed state variables. We identify conditions under which four-stage regression … time-varying prices of risk are pervasive, thus favoring dynamic cross-sectional asset pricing models over standard …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009024085
that idiosyncratic risk can help to enter the bounds when idiosyncratic uncertainty depends on the aggregate state of the … risk. I show that idiosyncratic risk does not change the volatility bounds at all when consumers have CRRA preferences and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005526295
Beginning in 1998, U.S. commercial banks may determine their regulatory capital requirements for financial market risk … exposure using value-at-risk (VaR) models i.e., models of the time-varying distributions of portfolio returns. Currently …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005526313
Beginning in 1998, commercial banks may determine their regulatory capital requirements for market risk exposure using … value-at-risk (VaR) models; i.e., time-series models of the distributions of portfolio returns. Currently, regulators have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717270
dividend process of a risky asset. Under perfect information, the presence of risk-neutral arbitrageurs unambiguously reduces …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420543
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001751995