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Federal Reserve readings on inflation

1979

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001852635

Structural change in US wage determination

Rich, Robert W. (contributor); … - 2001 - [Elektronische Ressource]

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001589687

The recovery and monetary policy

Dudley, William C. - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2012

Remarks at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting, New York City.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010724979

Real-time inflation forecasting in a changing world

Groen, Jan J. J.; Paap, Richard; Ravazzolo, Francesco - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2009

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts … inflation, a host of real-activity data, term structure data, nominal data, and surveys. In each individual specification, we … deflator inflation rates for the United States in the post-World War II period. Over the full 1960-2008 sample, the framework …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005078430

Commodity prices, commodity currencies, and global economic developments

Groen, Jan J. J.; Pesenti, Paolo A. - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2009

In this paper, we seek to produce forecasts of commodity price movements that can systematically improve on naive statistical benchmarks. We revisit how well changes in commodity currencies perform as potential efficient predictors of commodity prices, a view emphasized in the recent literature....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005078431

Parsimonious estimation with many instruments

Groen, Jan J. J.; Kapetanios, George - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2009

We suggest a way to perform parsimonious instrumental variables estimation in the presence of many, and potentially weak, instruments. In contrast to standard methods, our approach yields consistent estimates when the set of instrumental variables complies with a factor structure. In this sense,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005078436

Model selection criteria for factor-augmented regressions

Groen, Jan J. J.; Kapetanios, George - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2009

In a factor-augmented regression, the forecast of a variable depends on a few factors estimated from a large number of predictors. But how does one determine the appropriate number of factors relevant for such a regression? Existing work has focused on criteria that can consistently estimate the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420506

Consistent covariance matrix estimation in probit models with autocorrelated errors

Estrella, Arturo; Rodrigues, Anthony P. - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 1998

Some recent time-series applications use probit models to measure the forecasting power of a set of variables. Correct inferences about the significance of the variables requires a consistent estimator of the covariance matrix of the estimated model coefficients. A potential source of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005526284

An expanded, cointegrated model of U.S. trade

Hickok, Susan A.; Hung, Juann H.; Wulfekuhler, Kurt C. - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 1991

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005387358

Pricing the term structure with linear regressions

Adrian, Tobias; Moench, Emanuel - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2008

We estimate the time series and cross section of bond returns by way of three-stage ordinary least squares, which we label dynamic Fama-MacBeth regressions. Our approach allows for estimation of models with a large number of pricing factors. Even though we do not impose yield cross-equation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005726598

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