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This paper analyzes the political economy of growth when agents and the government have finite horizons and equilibrium growth is inefficient. A "representative" government (that is, one whose preferences reflect those of its constituents) endowed merely with the ability to tax and transfer can...
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We review evidence on the Great Moderation together with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level to develop a potential explanation for the decline in aggregate volatility since the 1980s and its consequences. The key elements are declines in firm-level volatility and aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004994124
This paper revisits the hypothesis that changes in inventory management were an important contributor to volatility reductions during the Great Moderation. It documents how changes in inventory behavior contributed to the stabilization of the U.S. economy within the durable goods sector, in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005726625
We use a recent policy experiment in Rio de Janeiro, the installation of permanent police stations in low-income communities (or favelas), to quantify the relationship between a reduction in crime and the change in the prices of nearby residential real estate. Using a novel data set of detailed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010551294
This paper studies the role of detrended wealth in predicting stock returns. We call a transitory movement in wealth … data, we find that these trend deviations in wealth are strong predictors of both real stock returns and excess returns … forecasting variables. ; Why should wealth, detrended in this way, forecast asset returns? We show that a wide class of optimal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420595