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Consumer sentiment and household expenditure: reevaluating the forecasting equations

Ludvigson, Sydney - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 1996

This paper reestimates the simple forecasting regressions in Carroll, Fuhrer, and Wilcox (1993) (CFW), which … inappropriate when variables lagged one period are used in the forecasting equation. I reestimate the forecasting regressions using … indicators as controls in the forecasting regression. These changes produce notable qualitative differences with the results …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005387367

Macroeconomic forecasts under the prism of error-correction models

Antzoulatos, Angelos A. - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 1997

dynamics, which, if not taken sufficiently into account by a forecasting model, could be associated with predictable forecast … pervasive in the forecasts of other large-scale econometric models. Key Words: Error Correction Models, Forecasting, Consumption …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005387394

Approximation bias in linearized Euler equations

Ludvigson, Sydney; Paxson, Christina H. - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 1997

This paper concerns pitfalls associated with the use of approximations to dynamic Euler equations. Two applications of the approximations are notable. First, tests for precautionary saving motives typically involve regressing consumption growth on uncertainty in expected consumption growth. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717200

Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns

Ludvigson, Sydney; Lettau, Martin - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 1999

forecasting variables. ; Why should wealth, detrended in this way, forecast asset returns? We show that a wide class of optimal …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420595

Improving the measurement of inflation expectations

Potter, Simon M. - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2012

Remarks at the Barclays 16th Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference, New York City.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010725025

The outlook, policy choices and our mandate

Dudley, William - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2010

Remarks at the at the Society of American Business Editors and Writers Fall Conference, City University of New York, Graduate School of Journalism, New York City.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010725034

A boost in the paycheck: survey evidence on workers’ response to the 2011 payroll tax cuts

Graziani, Grant; Klaauw, Wilbert van der; Zafar, Basit - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2013

This paper presents new survey evidence on workers’ response to the 2011 payroll tax cuts. While workers intended to spend 10 to 18 percent of their tax-cut income, they reported actually spending 28 to 43 percent of the funds. This is higher than estimates from studies of recent tax cuts, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010601733

Heterogeneous inflation expectations, learning, and market outcomes

Madeira, Carlos; Zafar, Basit - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2012

Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we show that individuals, in particular women and ethnic minorities, are highly heterogeneous in their expectations of inflation. We estimate a model of inflation expectations based on learning from experience that also allows for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010551307

Are recent college graduates finding good jobs?

Dudley, William C. - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2013

Remarks at the Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010724940

A strategy for the 2011 economic recovery

Tracy, Joseph S. - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2011

Remarks at Dominican College, Orangeburg, New York.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010724948

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