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Regulatory evaluation of value-at-risk models

Lopez, Jose A. - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 1997

Beginning in 1998, U.S. commercial banks may determine their regulatory capital requirements for financial market risk exposure using value-at-risk (VaR) models i.e., models of the time-varying distributions of portfolio returns. Currently, regulators have available three hypothesis-testing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005526313

Model selection criteria for factor-augmented regressions

Groen, Jan J. J.; Kapetanios, George - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2009

In a factor-augmented regression, the forecast of a variable depends on a few factors estimated from a large number of predictors. But how does one determine the appropriate number of factors relevant for such a regression? Existing work has focused on criteria that can consistently estimate the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420506

Macroeconomic forecasts under the prism of error-correction models

Antzoulatos, Angelos A. - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 1997

dynamics, which, if not taken sufficiently into account by a forecasting model, could be associated with predictable forecast … pervasive in the forecasts of other large-scale econometric models. Key Words: Error Correction Models, Forecasting, Consumption …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005387394

How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States

Estrella, Arturo; Rodrigues, Anthony P.; Schich, Sebastian - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2000

Empirical research over the last decade has uncovered predictive relationships between the slope of the yield curve and subsequent real activity and inflation. Some of these relationships are highly significant, but their theoretical motivations suggest that they may not be stable over time. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005726595

Forecasting in large macroeconomic panels using Bayesian Model Averaging

Koop, Gary; Potter, Simon - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2003

This paper considers the problem of forecasting in large macroeconomic panels using Bayesian model averaging. Practical … apply these methods to the problem of forecasting GDP and inflation using quarterly U.S. data on 162 time series. Our … analysis indicates that models containing factors do outperform autoregressive models in forecasting both GDP and inflation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005726664

Which financial frictions? Parsing the evidence from the financial crisis of 2007-09

Adrian, Tobias; Colla, Paolo; Shin, Hyun Song - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2011

We provide an overview of data requirements necessary to monitor repurchase agreements (repos) and securities lending (sec lending) markets for the purposes of informing policymakers and researchers about firm-level and systemic risk. We start by explaining the functioning of these markets, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009421388

Trade dynamics in the market for federal funds

Afonso, Gara; Lagos, Ricardo - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2012

We develop a model of the market for federal funds that explicitly accounts for its two distinctive features: banks have to search for a suitable counterparty, and once they have met, both parties negotiate the size of the loan and the repayment. The theory is used to answer a number of positive...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010551300

A Bayesian approach to estimating tax and spending multipliers

Denes, Matthew; Eggertsson, Gauti B. - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2009

This paper outlines a simple Bayesian methodology for estimating tax and spending multipliers in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. After forming priors about the parameters of the model and the relevant shock, we used the model to exactly match only one data point: the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008636147

Dynamic hierarchical factor models

Moench, Emanuel; Ng, Serena; Potter, Simon - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2009

This paper uses multi-level factor models to characterize within- and between-block variations as well as idiosyncratic noise in large dynamic panels. Block-level shocks are distinguished from genuinely common shocks, and the estimated block-level factors are easy to interpret. The framework...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008636156

A small sample test of structural homogeneity

Reinhart, Vincent - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 1986

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717191

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