Remarks at the New Jersey Bankers Association Economic Forum, Iselin, New Jersey.

Remarks at the Center for the New Economy 2010 Economic Conference, San Juan, Puerto Rico.

This paper outlines a simple Bayesian methodology for estimating tax and spending multipliers in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. After forming priors about the parameters of the model and the relevant shock, we used the model to exactly match only one data point: the...

Tax cuts can deepen a recession if the short-term nominal interest rate is zero, according to a standard New Keynesian business cycle model. An example of a contractionary tax cut is a reduction in taxes on wages. This tax cut deepens a recession because it increases deflationary pressures....

As of May 1988, over 8 million workers had received their pension benefits as lump-sum distributions (LSDs) when they changed jobs. In 1986 Congress imposed a 10% tax penalty on the amount of LSDs not rolled over into tax-deferred instruments. This paper examines the effects of this tax penalty...

During the Great Recession and its aftermath, state and local governments’ revenue streams dried up due to diminished taxes. Budget cuts affected many aspects of government; in this paper, we investigate whether (and how) local school districts modified their funding and taxing decisions in...

How does the belief that policymakers will bail out investors in the event of a crisis affect the allocation of resources and the stability of the financial system? I study this question in a model of financial intermediation with limited commitment. When a crisis occurs, the efficient policy...