consumption. We investigate the robustness of these results to model uncertainty using Bayesian model averaging. We find that … there is model uncertainty with regard to the number of cointegrating vectors, the form of deterministic components, lag … length, and whether the cointegrating residuals affect consumption and income directly. Whether this uncertainty has …

analyze the relationship between expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty. We extend previous studies through our … data construction and estimation methodology. Specifically, we derive measures of disagreement and uncertainty by using a … propositions that disagreement is a useful proxy for uncertainty and that increases in expected inflation are accompanied by …

assume that both the central bank and the private sector face uncertainty about the "correct" model of the economy and have … to learn. A transparent central bank can reduce one source of uncertainty for private agents by communicating its policy …

addition, we present results associated with new survey questions that assess the degree of individual uncertainty about future … individual responses exhibit considerable persistence, both in the expected level of inflation and in forecast uncertainty …