We investigate the economically and statistically significant positive correlation between monthly foreign purchases of Mexican stocks and Mexican stock returns. We find that 1 percent of market capitalization surprise foreign inflow is associated with a 13 percent increase in Mexican stock...

This paper proposes a theory of the fiscal foundations of inflation based on imperfect knowledge and learning. The theory is similar in spirit to, but distinct from, unpleasant monetarist arithmetic and the fiscal theory of the price level. Because the assumption of imperfect knowledge breaks...

Countries' concerns about the value of their currency have been studied and documented extensively in the literature. Capital controls can be—and often are—used as a tool to manage exchange rate fluctuations. This paper investigates whether countries can benefit from using such a tool. We...

International financial linkages, particularly through global bank flows, generate important questions about the consequences for economic and financial stability, including the ability of countries to conduct autonomous monetary policy. I address the monetary autonomy issue in the context of...

This paper develops and tests a theoretical model that allows for the endogenous decision of banks to engage in international and global banking. International banking, where banks raise capital in the home market and lend it abroad, is driven by differences in factor endowments across...

We present a model where policies of free capital mobility can signal governments' future policies, but the informativeness of the signal depends on the path of world interest rates. Capital flows to "emerging markets" reflect investors' perception of these markets' political risk. With low...

On the eve of a major change in the world monetary system, the adoption of a single currency in Europe, our theoretical understanding of the implications of the exchange rate regime for trade and capital flows is still limited. We argue that two key model ingredients are essential to address...

Bond flows to Less Developed Countries (LDCs) proved more resilient than expected to the rising U.S. interest rates during 1994, raising hopes that the current episode of private capital flows to LDCs may not end in a widespread crisis as its predecessors in the 1920s and 1970s did. This paper...

This paper proposes a model to investigate the effects of monetary policy in an emerging market economy that experiences a sudden stop of capital inflows. The model features credit frictions, debt denominated in foreign currency, imported inputs, and households that have access to the...