We use matched point and density forecasts of output growth and inflation from the ECB Survey of Professional … countercyclical behavior, and there is evidence of increased uncertainty for output growth and inflation since 2007. The results also … provide a reliable proxy for uncertainty. Last, using a regression equation that can be interpreted as a (G)ARCH-M-type model …

Remarks at the Barclays 16th Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference, New York City. …

underlying inflation (UIG) at time horizons of relevance for monetary policymakers for both CPI and PCE. The UIG uses a broad … data set allowing for high-frequency updates on underlying inflation. The paper complements the existing literature on U …

external information from surveys (nowcasts, interest rate forecasts, and expectations for long-run inflation and output growth … all three purposes—forecasting, story telling, and policy experiments—and review their forecasting record. We also provide … our own real-time assessment of the forecasting performance of the Smets and Wouters (2007) model data up to 2011, compare …

The perceptions of a central bank's inflation aversion may reflect institutional structure or, more dynamically, the … for persistent variation in market perceptions of central bank inflation aversion. The first years of the European Central … ECB evolved significantly during the first six years of the Bank's operation, with a belief in its inflation aversion …

subsequent real activity and inflation in both Europe and the United States. The results show that monetary policy is an … significant predictive power for both real activity and inflation. The yield curve is thus a simple and accurate measure that …