Remarks at the at the Society of American Business Editors and Writers Fall Conference, City University of New York, Graduate School of Journalism, New York City.

Remarks before the Bronx Chamber of Commerce at the New York Botanical Garden, Bronx, New York.

Remarks at New York University's Stern School of Business, New York City.

Remarks at Fordham University's Gabelli School of Business, Bronx, New York.

This paper concerns pitfalls associated with the use of approximations to dynamic Euler equations. Two applications of the approximations are notable. First, tests for precautionary saving motives typically involve regressing consumption growth on uncertainty in expected consumption growth. The...

Remarks at the Barclays 16th Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference, New York City.

This paper presents new survey evidence on workers’ response to the 2011 payroll tax cuts. While workers intended to spend 10 to 18 percent of their tax-cut income, they reported actually spending 28 to 43 percent of the funds. This is higher than estimates from studies of recent tax cuts, and...

This paper reestimates the simple forecasting regressions in Carroll, Fuhrer, and Wilcox (1993) (CFW), which investigate the predictive power of consumer sentiment for consumption growth. Durability in the consumption categories analyzed implies that the error term may be distributed as an...

This paper investigates the forecasting power of consumer sentiment for household expenditure. We compare the predictive power of two measures of consumer attitudes, and then further compare each survey's expectations component with one another, and with the broader sentiment measures. The...

Remarks at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting, New York City.