pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE … how a policymaker dealing with model uncertainty could have used a dynamic pool to perform a counterfactual exercise …

subjective expected utility by 21 percent. From a methodological standpoint, we find that ignoring non-pecuniary factors …, uncertainty related to employment and drop-out, or direct measures of financial constraints yields biased estimates—a result that …

(a decreased) probability of pension cut legislation. The stock price reactions are positively related to the extent to …

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts … magnitude. As such, our framework simultaneously addresses structural change and model uncertainty that unavoidably affect … evidence of autonomous variance breaks and inflation gap persistence. Through a real-time out-of-sample forecasting exercise …

partial least squares (PLS) regression to extract dynamic factors from the data set. Our forecasting analysis considers ten …