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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717253
The U.S. business cycle expansion that started in March 1991 is the longest on record. This paper uses statistical techniques to examine whether this expansion is a onetime unique event or whether its length is a result of a change in the stability of the U.S. economy. Bayesian methods are used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005526294
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005545053
How is the term structure able to predict future interest rates several months in the future and why is it so steep at the short end? Recent empirical work shows that rates of mean reversion are too slow to help predict short rates or to account for the curve's steepness. We propose that short...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005387233
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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005387317
We propose a model of the interbank money market with an explicit role for central bank intervention and periodic reserve requirements, and study the interaction of profit-maximizing banks with a central bank targeting interest rates at high frequency. The model yields predictions on biweekly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005726573
"This paper examines the causes of the observed increase in the average duration of unemployment over the past thirty … in the generosity and coverage of unemployment insurance. We find that changes in the composition of the labor force and … institutional changes can only partially account for the longer duration of unemployment. We construct a job search model and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002521759
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001590063
has not been a good predictor of whether the unemployment rate at the end of the expansion following a shift was higher or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010890134