Borders have a sizable negative impact on trade flows. Given the vast number of individual goods potentially traded, this "border effect" could have two possible explanations: (1) less international than domestic trade in the goods that are actually traded between countries ("flow"), or (2)...

This paper quantifies the effects of two short-run fiscal policies, a temporary tax cut and a temporary rebate transfer, that are intended to stimulate economic activity. A reduction in income taxation provides immediate incentives to work and save more, raising aggregate output and consumption....

We study regression-based estimators for beta representations of dynamic asset pricing models with affine and exponentially affine pricing kernel specifications. These estimators extend static cross-sectional asset pricing estimators to settings where prices of risk vary with observed state...

We develop a multi-sector sticky-price DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model that can endogenously deliver differential responses of prices to aggregate and sectoral shocks. Input-output production linkages induce across-sector pricing complementarities that contribute to a slow...

The goal of this paper is to present the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model developed and used at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The paper describes how the model works, how it is estimated, how it rationalizes past history, including the Great Recession, and how it is...

It has been argued that existing DSGE models cannot properly account for the evolution of key macroeconomic variables during and following the recent Great Recession, and that models in which inflation depends on economic slack cannot explain the recent muted behavior of inflation, given the...

This note corrects a mistake in the estimation algorithm of the time-varying structural vector autoregression model of Primiceri (2005) and proposes a new algorithm that correctly applies the procedure proposed by Kim, Shephard, and Chib (1998) to the estimation of VAR or DSGE models with...

Faced with the problem of pricing complex contingent claims, investors seek to make their valuations robust to model uncertainty. We construct a notion of a model-uncertainty-induced utility function and show that model uncertainty increases investors’ effective risk aversion. Using this...

This paper considers a general class of nonlinear rational-expectations models in which policymakers seek to maximize an objective function that may be household expected utility. We show how to derive a target criterion that is 1) consistent with the model’s structural equations, 2) strong...